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Forrester predicts automation of DBA jobs in four years

Forrester Research notes that the vast majority of database outages are related to human error and the inherent complexity of database administration tasks:
"Forrester estimates that 25% of all database outages are related to human errors, mainly because of complexity in managing databases and infrastructure, as well as informal data management practices."
In a more foreboding prediction, Forrester Research predicts that within 5 years, most DBA tasks will be automated:
"By 2009, most of the database administration tasks, such as migrations, upgrades, patch deployments, replication, data loading, and performance tuning, will be completely automated as DBMS vendors deliver highly innovative and automated database solutions."
I remember hearing the exact same prediction back in the 1980's when Charles Bachman, co-founder of the CODASYL Network database architecture created an intelligent tool for automating IDMS management.  Charlie has a great tool but unfortunately it failed to displace real-world DBA's.
Of course, there is much more to the DBA job role than migrations and patches.  Today's DBA is the custodian of the mission critical data repository and they perform many other important DBA functions such as database design, enforcing best practices and standards, and disaster recovery planning.


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